Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent two-day visit to Russia has garnered significant attention. During the visit, President Vladimir Putin conferred Russia’s highest civilian award, the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle, on Modi, an unprecedented move that symbolizes the two countries’ mutual respect and strategic ties. In televised remarks at the Kremlin, Modi advocated for a peaceful resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine, stating, “Amid bombs, guns and bullets, solutions and peace talks fail. We will have to follow the path to peace only through talks.”
Modi’s remarks have drawn criticism from some quarters, mainly from Washington and Kyiv, for not taking a more assertive stand against Russia’s military actions. In 2022, India had neither condemned the war nor joined Western sanctions imposed on Moscow, maintaining “strategic ambivalence.” According to Ashley Tellis, “If the larger goal of preserving the order comes into conflict with particular Indian interests … New Delhi will pursue its own equities because the private gains to India are judged to be more valuable than both the private losses stemming from such a choice and the larger toll exacted on the liberal order as a whole.”
Modi is Signaling India’s Foreign Policy Independence
The warm personal rapport between Modi and Putin, marked by a notable hug, has reaffirmed the special relationship between the two nations, even as most Western countries condemn Russia’s actions. India and Russia signed nine Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs), and most focused on trade and investment, specifically on Russian companies investing in the Indian market. To date, India has benefited greatly from its bilateral relationship with Russia, which includes weapons sales, diplomatic cover at the United Nations (UN), and help with civilian nuclear technology for the past fifty years.
Modi’s remarks have drawn criticism from some quarters, mainly from Washington and Kyiv, for not taking a more assertive stand against Russia’s military actions.
Aligning with Russia is important for India’s foreign and strategic policy. Yet, India’s foreign policy is not simply about siding with Russia but rather maintaining a hedging approach where it can balance its convergence and divergences with Moscow depending on its own national interests. Washington has raised concerns about India’s relationship with Russia since it views New Delhi’s Russia policy as an indication of New Delhi not being fully on board with the U.S. policy to counter China. India’s reliance on Russian hardware has also raised concerns about interoperability with U.S. weapons systems, which India is keen to acquire as the defense side of the bilateral U.S.-India relationship strengthens. And finally, trade between India and Russia has helped Russia economically, which has irked Western powers as they continue to place sanctions on Putin and his close allies. During the NATO summit, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine expressed disappointment with Modi not only meeting but warmly hugging Putin on the same day that Russia bombed a children’s hospital in Kyiv. He called the trip a “devastating blow to peace efforts.”
The visit’s timing, coinciding with the NATO summit, also holds wider geopolitical implications, as it demonstrates India’s independent foreign policy approach and its willingness to engage with Russia on its terms. Since the start of the Ukraine war, India has also been able to buy up large quantities of cheap Russian oil with rupees and sell it further into other markets for dollars. This has allowed India to keep domestic inflation down and augment its foreign exchange reserves, which is no small feat.
India’s “strategic autonomy” and ability to manage “diverse partners who are often at odds with each other” are always admired. However, the reputational costs for Modi for visiting Moscow during the NATO summit are unclear. The one thing that is clear is that by choosing Russia as his first official visit after being elected for a third term, Modi indicates that India is making “independent foreign policy choices.” It reaffirms India-Russia ties and Modi’s obvious personal rapport with Putin.
Another significant change in the geopolitical landscape for India has been the fact that Russia seems to be moving closer to China, which was exhibited by President Xi Jinping and Putin during Putin’s visit to China in May. The visit included a stop at the Russia-China Expo in Harbin and the U.S.-banned Harbin Institute of Technology. While there was no movement on the Siberia-2 gas pipeline, which aims to send Russian fuel to China, there were signals that both countries are interested in economic cooperation and integration.
India’s reliance on Russian hardware has also raised concerns about interoperability with U.S. weapons systems, which India is keen to acquire as the defense side of the bilateral U.S.-India relationship strengthens.
Moscow’s increasing reliance on China militarily and politically is of concern to India. The deep distrust between New Delhi and Beijing and active border tensions potentially complicate the balancing challenge in the long-standing India-Russia partnership. Regarding geopolitics, Modi likely recognizes the opportunities for India to build on the progress that Putin’s visits to North Korea and Vietnam have created between China and Russia. India would prefer these two countries to be under Russia’s influence over China as China’s expanding footprint in Southeast Asia will hinder India’s big power aspirations in regional and global politics.
Bad Optics for Modi and India
Modi’s visit to Moscow and the propaganda win it has handed to Putin looks like a miscalculation since it attracted more criticism than praise for Modi as he starts his third term. It seems that Modi has decided to opt for a more logical foreign policy to help his economic agenda. Unlike the first two terms, the BJP does not have a majority in Parliament, which means that Modi needs to work with a coalition government, which may seem like a weaker position. Meeting Putin could improve Modi’s standing at home, especially if seen as an economic policy dividend.
In summary, the India-Russia meeting was a significant diplomatic event that reinforced the countries’ strategic partnership while also drawing scrutiny and criticism for India’s measured approach to the Ukraine crisis. The outcomes of this summit are likely to influence the regional and global political landscape as India navigates its relationships with major world powers.
Also Read: Modi’s Visit to Russia Indicates a Reboot in the Bilateral Relationship.
***
Image 1: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Valdimir Putin via Wikimedia Commons.
Image 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden via Flickr.
