NTI Index 2016: The View from India

The 2016 Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) Security Index was released this week. A media frenzy and heated debates in many countries followed the report’s release in both 2012 and 2014. The same appears to be true this year, particularly in South Asia, where debates over nuclear security remain contentious. Despite India’s improved performance, the report is not likely to be received well in New Delhi.

Prepared biennially by the NTI and the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the index rankings are released before the global Nuclear Security Summit (NSS). The report reviews the security of nuclear materials the world-over, and highlights the existing gaps and pertinent problems.This year’s report has a new addition to the index, the sabotage ranking, which reviews the nuclear security environment in 45 countries based on potential sabotage risks.

Since 2012, scholars in India have criticized the NTI methodology, pointed out the lacunae, and defended the Indian position (some more persuasively than others). Despite the inclusion of credible international experts in the scoring process, analysts have been critical of the process, and have also expressed problems with the “control and leadership exercised on the project by known non-proliferation activists.”

India fared better this year, with a two-point increase in its score. This change is the result of India’s involvement in bilateral assistance activities with the United States, and its ratification of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Additional Protocol. On the surface, India’s relatively better performance may seem worth rejoicing. However, if one digs deeper, there is not much to be happy or critical about. It is predictable that observers in India would not find anything exceptional in the 2016 edition, especially given the dominant skepticism regarding the biennial reports and its scoring style.

India’s performance is reflected in the following info-graphics:


Source: NTI Index 2016 Country Profiles-India

The criticism of the previous two reports revolved around some valid issues, such as the lack of safety-security synergy, the contentious yardstick of judging a nuclear program based on the number of sites, and an unwillingness to take into account additional radiological materials. These critiques remain relevant even today. Experts argue that quantitative assessments do not present a comprehensive picture about a country’s nuclear security landscape.

A specific problem with the NTI 2016 report relates to the view that increased quantities of weapons-usable nuclear material automatically implies increased insecurity. According to the report, one of the reasons for India’s low score is its increasing quantities of materials. Other countries put in the category of increased stockpiles include Japan, the Netherlands, North Korea, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom.

It is imprudent to assume that just because some countries have increased their nuclear stockpiles, the security risks increase. NTI’s assessment should focus on the security of that material as opposed to the quantity. A country may have a limited amount of weapons-grade nuclear material, but if it is not secured properly, even that limited amount is extremely dangerous. This case is different for a country such as India that has a fairly large share of nuclear material, but takes significant steps to secure it satisfactorily. Hence, nuclear security is dependent upon more than the amount of material held by a particular country, something NTI’s assessment fails to acknowledge.

In addition to the above issue, another controversy that surrounds the NTI report needs to be highlighted. Even if the intention of the involved organizations is genuine, and solely directed at highlighting the state of security and identifying shortcomings, the point gets lost in the ensuing discussions. In India, a general perspective persists that the NTI Security Index is an “anti-India Western non-proliferation document.”

Unfortunately, the rankings and media commentaries surrounding the NTI report tend to make countries increasingly defensive about their nuclear security. Even though it hopes to generate a healthy debate on the issue, it pushes some countries to question the ultimate benefit of such monitoring initiatives. This is especially undesirable given that the report is released before the NSS, which hopes to foster a healthy environment of cooperation and discussion among the participants.

To be fair, it is important for India to establish an independent regulatory agency (as also highlighted by the IAEA besides the NTI report). India has been working towards this, albeit slowly. In 2011, India tabled the Nuclear Safety Regulatory Authority (NSRA) Bill, which aimed to establish an autonomous regulatory agency as a replacement of the current Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB). Despite the introduction, the bill was not taken up before the 15th Lok Sabha’s dissolution. Additionally, the NSRA Bill 2015,which was supposed to be introduced during the Parliament’s winter session, remained locked in the governmental chambers. While India must be credited for its intentions, the polity must concentrate their efforts towards achieving this goal without letting the issue hibernate for long.

Overall, it would be beneficial if India was more open, not just for its domestic audiences but also international ones, about steps it takes in ensuring nuclear security. On the other hand, organizations such as the NTI would do well to engage more extensively with Indian think tanks that focus on these issues and conduct relevant studies. This would help panelists understand the idiosyncrasies of Indian nuclear security and better judge the country’s efforts, thus enabling them to offer more valuable recommendations. Undoubtedly, nuclear security is a global concern and can only be dealt with if all stakeholders work in tandem with one another.


Image: Fatima, Flickr

Posted in , Fissile Material, IAEA, India, Nuclear, Nuclear Safety, Nuclear Security, Visiting Fellows

Aditi Malhotra

Aditi Malhotra

Aditi Malhotra is a PhD Candidate at the Graduate School of Politics (GraSP), University of Münster, Germany. Previously, she was a Senior Research Fellow in the International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP) at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS). Prior to joining NIAS, Aditi was an Associate Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi. She was also the Editor of Scholar Warrior, a bi-annual Journal published by CLAWS. Aditi holds a Master’s degree in International Studies from the University of Sheffield, United Kingdom with a dissertation concentrating on ‘Nuclear Security: The Case of Pakistan.’ Her areas of interest include security Issues related to South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region, Nuclear Proliferation and Security, and Changing Trends in Conflict. Aditi was a South Asian Voices Visiting Fellow in Winter 2016.

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4 thoughts on “NTI Index 2016: The View from India

  1. Aditi:
    Well argued.
    Your write:
    “A specific problem with the NTI 2016 report relates to the view that increased quantities of weapons-usable nuclear material automatically implies increased insecurity.”
    I would agree.
    Would you also agree that, while increased openness is desirable, it is not as important as improved safety and security practices? Openness is fine – if you have a strong story to tell.

  2. Dear MK,

    Thank you for taking out the time to read the piece. I totally agree that openness is not as important as better and safety & security practices. However, many a times, being secretive about nuclear issues does tend to give wrong impressions to the international audience (which has happened in the case of India). However, this does not imply that one expects India to reveal information that can have an adverse impact, such as details about the weapons pgme etc.

    It is also advisable to be a bit more open because then, countries can learn more from each other when they are not married to being extra secretive about their practices.

  3. @Khalid: I don’t really know if those points are vital or not. I personally believe that a country should not improve safety & security practices to gain international applause but to ensure the safety & security of their own nuclear assets.

    Gaining 2 points may seem encouraging but like all other countries, India too has a long way to go. After all, no nuclear set-up can ever be 100% safe and secure. One can only work towards pursuing the best possible levels.

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