Narendra Modi was sworn in on June 8 as the Prime Minister of India for a third consecutive term, a milestone previously achieved only by Jawaharlal Nehru. But the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had aimed for 400 seats and later revised its target to 370, fell way short of expectations. Although it surpassed the 272 seats needed to form the government, it secured only 294 seats. The opposition alliance, led by the Indian National Congress Party (INC) and organized under the banner of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), garnered 235 seats.
Thus, for the first time in Modi’s career, he will need to rely on a coalition, supported by the Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party, to maintain a majority. This necessity arises amid a decline in the BJP’s dominance in key Hindi-belt states like Uttar Pradesh, a strategic setback that may force the party to reckon with its electoral strategy and domestic agenda. Analysts have widely speculated on the factors contributing to the results, attributing the surprise alternately to the opposition’s campaign strategies, the BJP’s overconfidence, low voter turnout, and even a heat wave. The outcome within the Kashmir Valley has also drawn widespread media attention, as results suggest that regional unionist parties, once labeled by Kashmiri separatists as collaborators with New Delhi, are increasingly seen as a legitimate vehicle to express civic discontent. The results have also been cautiously welcomed by India’s religious minorities and human rights organizations, who hope that the coalition will temper the BJP’s more contentious objectives.
In this essay series, SAV authors delve into the implications of the election and strive to anticipate the future direction of Modi’s administration. What can be learned from the election’s parallels to the BJP’s 2004 loss under its “India Shining” campaign? As Modi embarks on his third term, a period focused on legacy-building but potentially tempered by the necessity of consensus, how might coalition dynamics complicate the BJP’s expected domestic agenda?
While the somewhat surprising results have immediate domestic implications, the BJP’s unanticipated electoral results might also affect India’s international relationships. Listen to a recording of the Stimson Center’s discussion with three foreign policy experts who assess the new government’s future regional foreign policy agenda.
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Image 1: Narendra Modi Rally via Wikimedia Commons
