In December 2024, India and the Philippines held their inaugural Track 1 maritime dialogue, led by senior officials from the two countries’ foreign ministries, in the latest demonstration of their increasing defense ties over the last few years. Notably, the dialogue came on the heels of the completion of 75 years of India-Philippines diplomatic relations.
Although the relationship has been a relatively late bloomer, concerns surrounding China have driven both countries to bolster their defense engagement in recent years. China has increasingly threatened the Philippines’ rotation and resupply missions to the Second Thomas and Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, causing a downhill slide in relations. Similarly, India’s relations with China significantly deteriorated following the Galwan clash in June 2020 along their disputed land border, and notwithstanding the recent disengagement deal reached between the two sides in eastern Ladakh, India continues to view China as a long-term threat.
Both India and the Philippines have much to gain from exploiting their many complementarities. However, the pace and intensity of their bilateral engagement will likely depend on the longer-term trajectory of each of their equations with China.
A Historically Neglected Partnership
When compared with India’s relations with other Southeast Asian countries, the partnership with the Philippines is a later bloomer. As part of its Look East Policy, India has been conducting bilateral naval exercises with Southeast Asian countries since the 1990s. However, its earliest bilateral naval exercises with the Philippines came relatively late, in the mid 2000s.
The Philippines’ longstanding reliance on the United States as its primary economic, developmental, and security partner is can partly explain the slow pace of its defense engagement with India. Domestic threats – especially insurgencies in the southern Philippines – have also prevented Manila from looking beyond its traditional ally, the United States. However, that changed under former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, who tried to reduce the country’s reliance on Washington and bolstered strategic relations with non-traditional partners like India.
Both India and the Philippines have much to gain from exploiting their many complementarities. However, the pace and intensity of their bilateral engagement will likely depend on the longer-term trajectory of each of their equations with China.
On India’s part, its preoccupation with its immediate neighborhood and with continental threats from Pakistan and China contributed to New Delhi’s neglect of the Philippines. However, that began to change with the deterioration in relations with China, which have propelled New Delhi to forge stronger defense cooperation with Manila in recent years.
Greater Geopolitical Convergence
Historically, India has preferred not to irk China by mentioning the South China Sea in its joint statements with other countries. But China’s continued belligerence against India along their territorial border, accompanied by India’s growing strategic convergence with the United States, seems to have brought about a change in New Delhi’s stance on the South China Sea dispute in recent years. In October 2014, for the first time, India mentioned the importance of freedom of navigation in the South China Sea in a joint statement with the United States. The Galwan clash accelerated this trend in India’s attitude towards China and being more vocal about its views on the South China Sea dispute. Since 2021, every joint statement of the summit between India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has emphasized freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and the importance of upholding the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in the region.
This change in India’s stance on the South China Sea dispute has facilitated a closer partnership with the Philippines. When the Permanent Court of Arbitration set up under UNCLOS ruled in favor of the Philippines in 2016 in its maritime dispute with China, India did not take sides and maintained a neutral stance. However, that changed in 2023, when India supported the Philippines for the first time by calling on China to abide by the 2016 verdict. In March 2024, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar reiterated India’s support to the Philippines in upholding its sovereignty, subsequently drawing China’s ire.
Boost in Defense Engagement
India’s willingness to support a rules-based maritime order in the South China Sea has enhanced its alignment with the Philippines and facilitated deeper defense engagement between the two countries. For instance, during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Manila in November 2017, the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to encourage defense industry and logistics cooperation. In August 2023, an MoU was also signed between the coast guards to enhance maritime cooperation. This MoU was followed by the signing of a standard operating procedure to exchange white shipping information. The Indian and Philippines navies are also working on hydrographic cooperation.
An increase in strategic dialogues has also contributed to the growing defense relationship between the two. The India-Philippines Joint Defense Cooperation Committee (JDCC) was established under the ambit of the MoU on Defense Cooperation signed in 2006. In September 2024, the JDCC was elevated to the secretary level from the joint secretary level. Further, a Joint Defense Industry and Logistics Committee (JDILC) was established under an MoU on defense industry and logistics cooperation. Last month’s Track 1 maritime dialogue was built on the success of the Track 2 maritime dialogue held between the National Maritime Foundation of India and Stratbase ADR Institute of the Philippines in September 2023.
This increased defense dialogue has run in parallel with a series of military exercises. Since 2006, India and the Philippines have been conducting joint naval exercises whenever Indian ships make a port visit to the country. Further, in 2019, India participated in what it called a “group sail” in the South China Sea involving the Filipino, U.S. and Japanese navies. Additionally, in 2023, India and the ASEAN held their first-ever military exercise, which also included the Philippines.
Driven by this momentum and the developing institutional framework for cooperation, Indian defense companies have also been keen to enter the Filipino defense market. In January 2022, the Philippines became the first country to purchase the Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles jointly developed by India and Russia. At the time, it marked India’s single biggest defense export deal ever. In February 2024, in a defense industry seminar organized by the Indian embassy in Manila, 18 Indian companies showcased their defense equipment in the country. Additionally, India has also pitched its Light Combat Aircraft, Tejas Mk-1A, as part of the Philippines’ tender to acquire 40 combat aircraft. In a sign of growing trust between the two countries, India has also indicated that it is willing to partner with the Philippines in joint defense production. Last year, the Indian defense secretary invited the Philippines to partner with India’s defense industry in the co-development and co-production of defense equipment.
[…] [T]he Philippines has been engaging with new strategic partners to garner international attention and support for its “assertive transparency strategy” against China in the South China Sea. India’s rivalry with China – in both the continental and maritime theaters – makes New Delhi a valuable partner to the Philippines.
Opportunities for Mutual Gain
In March 2024, the Philippines launched a Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC) to protect its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The CADC intends to develop the Philippines’ military capabilities to protect and secure its entire territory and EEZ. It is aimed at building deterrence against China in the South China Sea.
Given the Philippines’ nascent military capabilities, defense engagement with India is expected to aid Manila in implementing and operationalizing the CADC. India is already helping the Philippines’ armed forces with capacity building, for instance, by providing military education and training to its personnel. In November 2023, India also offered seven helicopters to the Philippines Coast Guard, which can be used in humanitarian as well as active security missions.
New Delhi also has much to gain from this investment in Manila. Capacity building of the Philippines’ armed forces will enhance India’s credibility as a reliable defense partner in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, the Philippines’ ambitious military modernization program presents a lucrative opportunity for the Indian defense industry to boost defense exports. The partnership with the Philippines could also prove indispensable to India in the years ahead as it looks to project its influence deep into the Indo-Pacific. Many countries in Southeast Asia already look at India as a “secondary balancer” against rising Chinese influence, and engagement with the Philippines is a way for India to build both its presence and its credibility in the region.
Despite this growing common ground, however, India and the Philippines will still need to invest significant time and energy to build their relationship. The Indian Ocean Region continues to consume most of India’s diplomatic attention, owing to its geographic proximity as well as how intricately the region is tied to India’s economic and strategic interests. If New Delhi’s strategic focus on the Indian Ocean Region leads to a neglect of Southeast Asia due to lack of bandwidth, it could impede the growth of India’s defense engagement with the Philippines.
Additionally, the Philippines Vice President Sara Duterte is projected to succeed current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and she is expected to adopt relatively friendlier attitudes toward China, which may affect the relevance of Manila’s defense engagement with New Delhi.
Under the Marcos administration, the Philippines has been engaging with new strategic partners to garner international attention and support for its “assertive transparency strategy” against China in the South China Sea. India’s rivalry with China – in both the continental and maritime theaters – makes New Delhi a valuable partner to the Philippines. However, the pace and intensity of this relationship will likely be determined by the two countries’ evolving relationship with China and the extent to which they perceive a threat from Beijing going forward.
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Image 1: Embassy of India in the Philippines via X
Image 2: Alexis Redin via Wikimedia Commons
